Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts
Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts: Exploring the Dynamics of Hybrid Warfare The Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts (OJ-HYSC) is an open access journal dedicated to advancing research and understanding on the critical topic of hybrid warfare. Published continuously by the Institute for Studying Hybrid Warfare "OCTOPUS", OJ offers in-depth analysis, evidence-based research, and strategic insights into this evolving threat to global and regional security. OJ covers a broad spectrum of fields related to hybrid warfare, including: Terrorism, hybrid warfare and security Geopolitics and international relations Diplomacy and propaganda Social sciences and journalism And other relevant disciplines With a particular focus on the Western Balkans and Kosovo, the journal examines the importance of global dynamics and their impact on the region. By addressing issues such as hybrid warfare, electoral influence, and geopolitical shifts, OJ aims to inform policymakers, scholars, and security experts worldwide.The OCTOPUS Journal is published under the following identifiers: ISSN Print: 3006-5917 ISSN Online: 3006-5925 To learn more about submitting your research for publication consideration, please visit the Submissions page. For questions or inquiries, contact us at info@octopusjournal.org.
Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies "Octopus"
All articles published in our "Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts" are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. This means that: You are free to share – copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. You are free to adapt – remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. The only requirement is that you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the journal endorses you or your use. This license allows for maximum dissemination and use of the materials published in our journal, while authors retain copyright ownership of their work. We believe this open licensing approach best serves the needs of both authors and readers in advancing research and scholarship. If you have any questions about the copyright and licensing for our journal, please don’t hesitate to contact us. The journal is an open-access publication (OPEN ACCESS JOURNAL), making its content accessible to a wide global audience, including researchers, professionals, and policymakers. Authors wishing to contribute are welcome to submit their papers for review.
RUSSIA’S HYBRID WARFARE IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES AND PROXY ACTORS
This paper examines Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against the Western Balkans, focusing on using direct and indirect methods to exert influence in the region. The study delves into Russia’s strategic use of media manipulation, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns, alongside its employment of proxy state and non-state actors such as Serbia, Republika Srpska, and the Serbian Orthodox Church. Leveraging historical, cultural, and religious ties, Russia seeks to destabilize the Western Balkans and prevent closer integration with NATO and the European Union. Special attention is given to the geopolitics of elections, where Russia manipulates electoral processes in countries like Montenegro and North Macedonia to favour pro-Russian or anti-Western political forces. By analyzing key case studies, this paper explores how Russian hybrid warfare exploits regional vulnerabilities—such as ethnic divisions and weak political institutions—while employing tactics of soft power and military cooperation. The findings indicate that Russia’s hybrid warfare, including electoral manipulation, poses a significant threat to regional stability and international security, underscoring the need for strengthened Western engagement to counter Russian influence. This study offers critical insights into the evolving nature of hybrid warfare and its implications for the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Europe.
Copyright (c) 2024 Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND RECONFIGURATIONS: SERBIA AND THE CHALLENGE TO MONTENEGRO’S STABILITY
Serbia aims its returnment or the achievement of the Serbian World (Greater Serbia) in Montenegro through the model of Bosnia with federalism, the model of North Macedonia - like the Albanians, the third model is Kosovo - an association of municipalities with a Serbian majority, the fourth model is the possibility of a referendum where partial or complete union with Serbia can be requested from Montenegro and the fifth possibility is the change of favorable geopolitical circumstances leading to full scale invasion. These conclusions on the paper are based on a historical, geopolitical analysis, Serbian hegemonic appetites, statistical, ethnic engineering, “landlocked territory” as well as economic reasons. The paper emphasizes how the electoral democracy allowed Serbia and Russia to gradually change the political structure after 2020. The result predicts that Serbia's geopolitical interests appear as part of a strategy for maintaining its influence in the Balkans and managing regional developments, creating challenges and complex changes for the stability and perspective of Montenegro on the international stage.
PRISTINA: GLOBAL EXPERTS DISCUSS THE IMPACT OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION ON THE STABILITY OF EUROPE AND THE BALKANS
The report titled “Global Experts Discuss the Impact of Russian Aggression on the Stability of Europe and the Balkans” provides a comprehensive overview of discussions held during an international conference organized by the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS” in Pristina. The conference gathered prominent experts, diplomats, and scholars to address the wide-ranging geopolitical impacts of Russia's war in Ukraine on both Europe and the Balkans. Key speakers highlighted the evolving threats posed by Russian aggression. Glauk Konjufca underscored the dangerous parallels between Russia’s “Russian world” doctrine and Serbia’s expansionist “Serbian world” ambitions in the Balkans. Dr. Jennifer Cassidy warned of the risk of Serbian military intervention in Kosovo, echoing Russia's tactics in Ukraine. Jason Jay Smart detailed Russia’s global destabilization strategy, including its use of proxy wars and criminal alliances to divert attention from Ukraine. Discussions on hybrid warfare featured Dr. Pekka Kallioniemi, who analyzed Russia’s use of disinformation campaigns and social media manipulation to influence global public opinion and destabilize democracies. Ihor Todorov and Pandeli Majko focused on the rise of nationalism and regional instability, stressing the need for unified European and NATO responses to these growing threats. The report captures the key points of the event, emphasizing the importance of countering Russian influence and strengthening democratic institutions in Europe and the Balkans to preserve stability and security in the face of ongoing aggression.
Serbia as a Hub for Russian Hybrid Operations in Europe: Five Documented Cases
Today, Serbia functions as an active link in Russia’s hybrid infrastructure in Europe. It provides territory, logistics, and state actors for coordinated operations influenced by the Kremlin, including paramilitary training for electoral destabilization, false-flag operations aimed at fomenting interethnic division in the West, and direct surveillance of European Union officials. This role is confirmed by five documented cases: (1) In Moldova, young recruits trained in Serbia and Bosnia took part in attempts to sabotage pro-EU elections and a referendum; (2) In France, under GRU organization, more than 250 Stars of David, a symbol of Israel, were painted in a false-flag operation; (3) Also in France, Serbian nationals were arrested for antisemitic vandalism designed as false-flag acts to blame Muslims; (4) In Brussels, a Serbian trade union representative with ties to the FSB infiltrated EU institutions; and (5) In Kosovo, a Serbian government official was exposed as part of BIA-coordinated wiretapping operations against EU officials. This document presents evidence that Serbia is not merely a nominal ally of Russia, but an active proxy structure that employs intelligence, organized crime, and propaganda tools to project Kremlin influence into the heart of Europe. Failure to disrupt these networks constitutes a direct threat to transnational security and demands a coordinated strategic response from European institutions and transatlantic partners.
Copyright (c) 2025 Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
The Influence of The Vidovdan Myth on Serbia’s Security Strategy and Foreign Policy Towards Kosovo
The Vidovdan myth holds a central place in Serbian political mythology and has evolved into a strategic instrument in shaping Serbia’s foreign and security policy, particularly in relation to Kosovo. This study examines how the myth is employed to legitimize Serbia’s revisionist discourse, justify interference in Kosovo’s internal affairs, and construct a permanent threat doctrine. Relying on the constructivist approach in international relations and political discourse analysis, the article argues that Vidovdan functions as an ideological mechanism with significant impact on regional security, Euro-Atlantic integration processes, and Kosovo’s international standing.
Chauvinism Hidden Behind Religion: The Case of the Church in the Courtyard of the University of Prishtina
This article critically examines the construction of the Serbian Orthodox “Church of Christ the Savior” in the courtyard of the University of Prishtina during the 1990s, framing it as a symbolic and ideological act of occupation rather than a religious endeavor. Positioned within the broader context of Serbian nationalist-chauvinist policy under Slobodan Milosevic, the church’s construction is analyzed as a calculated attempt to assert Serbian dominance over Kosovo’s cultural and educational spaces during a period of institutional apartheid and ethnic repression. The paper argues that this act represents a flagrant violation of international humanitarian and human rights law, including the Geneva Conventions, the Hague Convention on Cultural Property, and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Far from serving a local religious community, the church functioned as a hybrid weapon—an instrument of propaganda cloaked in religious symbolism to project control, erase Albanian identity, and reshape historical narratives. The study also deconstructs contemporary efforts to rehabilitate the church's image through propagandistic discourse in Serbian media and pseudo-academic commentary, highlighting how such narratives serve as tools of strategic mobilization and interethnic polarization. Ultimately, the paper argues that the issue should not be framed as a matter of heritage protection within Kosovo–Serbia dialogue, but as a legacy of illegal occupation and symbolic violence. By dissecting the fusion of nationalism, religion, and propaganda, the article reveals how the misuse of faith can become a strategic instrument of domination in hybrid warfare.
The devil's celebration in the name of God
Abstract Serbia has ethnicized religion, transforming it into a nationalist tool to destabilize Kosovo. Religious holidays, such as Orthodox Christmas, are exploited to promote political and nationalist agendas, fueling interethnic tensions. Instead of focusing on spiritual values, these events have become platforms for chauvinistic rhetoric and the glorification of Serbian historical narratives, often supported by Russia. Through the Serbian List, Belgrade employs political provocations and deliberate manipulations to challenge Kosovo's sovereignty and maintain a climate of ongoing tension. This instrumentalization of religion and religious symbolism is part of a broader strategy aimed not only at exacerbating interethnic relations but also at undermining Kosovo's efforts toward stability and democratic coexistence.
STRATEGIC PUTIN’S PLAN: WHAT ARE THE REAL GOALS OF CONTEMPORARY RUSSIA?
This paper deals with Russia’s declared and real goals in Ukraine during the war, which has been going on since 2014, and Russia’s interests in expanding its influence in European countries. This topic has been covered by many contemporary media in Russia, Ukraine and Western countries, therefore we have made an attempt to analyze this information through a content-analyze, summarizing some findings of analytical centers and some Ukrainian and Western experts. Special attention is paid to the ideological basis of modern Russian aggression and attempts to form an anti-Western coalition.
The Western Balkans at a crossroads: an old war front in new geopolitical compositions
The Western Balkans is transforming into one of the primary fronts of confrontation between global powers, where Russia's and Serbia's hybrid strategies directly challenge the stability and sovereignty of countries in the region. This paper examines the complex dimensions of this hybrid warfare, focusing on recent attacks in Banjska and Zvecan, which signify a deliberate escalation aimed at destabilizing Kosovo. Through the use of demographic manipulations, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and the provocation of ethnic tensions, Russia and Serbia are leveraging the Balkans as a battleground to advance their strategic projects, such as “Srpski Svet” and “Ruski Mir”. By comparing this approach to cases in Georgia and Ukraine, the paper highlights the use of hybrid tools, from propagandistic narratives to direct interventions, as a model for undermining democratic structures and increasing influence in the region.
PLATFORMS OF EXPANSIONISM: A COMPARISON OF RUSSIA'S NARRATIVES FOR UKRAINE AND SERBIA'S NARRATIVES FOR KOSOVO
Following the invasion of Crimea by Russia, there has been a significant shift in academic focus towards the study of Ukraine. Russia's efforts to establish a new warfront in the Western Balkans have drawn attention to the developments in the region. This paper offers a comparative analysis of the narratives put forth by Russia concerning Ukraine and Serbia's perspectives on Kosovo. Both Russia and Serbia have constructed fake narratives that present their geopolitical disputes as issues of historical and national identity and territorial integrity. In the case of Russia, the narratives regarding Ukraine underscore a shared history, the protection of ethnic Russians, while contesting Ukrainian sovereignty. Similarly, Serbia's narratives about Kosovo emphasize the cultural and historical significance of Kosovo, drawing its fake narrative for Kosovo as integral to Serbian identity and rejecting its independence as illegitimate and imposed by foreign powers. By delving into official discourse and media representations, this study aims to explore three core narratives used as expansionist platforms: historical and national identity narratives, the narrative of victimization and the narratives on the legitimacy of statehood and sovereignty and how these narratives are utilized within domestic and international spheres to gain internal and international support, legitimize policies, and perpetuate a sense of victimhood. The paper contends that although the contexts differ, the strategic deployment of historical grievances, ethnic unity, and anti-Western sentiment forms a common platform in the expansionist approaches of Russia and Serbia.
THE EUROPEAN MIRROR OF HYBRID WAR: HOW RUSSIA TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
The unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is the biggest war after the World War II, has caused a number of problems in Europe and in the whole democratic world, which is concerning regarding the functioning of the international institutions, the security of the countries that are part of international organizations, but aren't members of the EU and NATO, the protection of human rights mechanisms and the lack of mechanisms for the prevention of war and conflicts. It is clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is no accident. The Russian elites, led by President Vladimir Putin, have been preparing for this move for years. Not only have they acted openly, but they have also been waging a hybrid war. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has been going on since 2014, when Russia supported the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics for succession. And before that, Moscow unilaterally annexed Crimea. The European response to Russian aggression has been diplomatic expressions of concern and threats, and some sanctions, which Russia has successfully evaded. It seemed that Europe had consistently adapted to the new geopolitical environment. But only after 24th of February 2022, all civilization's words stand by Ukraine and the Ukrainians. The Western allies of Ukraine give money and weapons, humanitarian aid, training of military and deminers and take in Ukrainian refugees. The war in Ukraine is in its third year. This analysis elaborates the Russian influence on different levels and the European reactions to their attacks and provocations.
RUSSIAN AGGRESSION: CONTINUED IMPACT ON EUROPEAN SECURITY
This speech examines the profound impact of Russia’s continued aggression, particularly the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, on the security landscape of Europe, with a specific focus on Kosovo. As the war in Ukraine reshapes global power dynamics, Kosovo finds itself at the crossroads of regional tensions, aligning its security and policy-making with Western and European Union (EU) strategies. The speech will address how Kosovo’s history of conflict, pursuit of sovereignty, and quest for EU integration influence its strong support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian aggression. It will explore Kosovo's engagement in sanctions against Russia, the challenges of navigating its relationship with Serbia amidst Serbia's alignment with Russia, and Kosovo's aspirations for NATO membership in an increasingly volatile region. Furthermore, it will highlight how the conflict has shaped Kosovo’s domestic policies, from energy security to countering hybrid warfare tactics. Drawing parallels with Ireland’s peace process and geopolitical navigation, the speech will argue for the critical role Kosovo plays in strengthening European security and stability. Through this exploration, the speech underscores the importance of multilateral efforts and collective defense in countering Russian influence and safeguarding European values.
GROWING AND DIVERSIFYING THREATS OF RUSSIAN UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE
The growing and diversifying threats of Russian unconventional warfare are directed at states outside of Ukraine. These activities contribute to the wider use of information operations and active measures to destabilize and undermine opposing states. Russia's approach has been remarkably consistent for decades. The overall approach is to use information operations and active measures to polarize the target population, mobilize factions to support allied elites, and paralyze support for opposing elements of the country's leadership. Human intelligence operations /HUMINT/ are used to try to capture the elite by offering help to politicians who support Russian interests. Finally, violence can be used to escalate political tensions to the point of crisis or in other contexts to isolate a captive elite. This paper emphasizes: First, although Russia's capacity for covert violence in Europe has been disrupted by the exposure of its personnel and the dismantling of elements of its support apparatus, the Russian state is actively working to rebuild that capacity. Second, the intention to achieve this reflects a broader vision to widen the opening of geostrategic competition with the West, which could be manifested in Europe but is already being carried out to a large extent in Africa. Third, the kaleidoscopic and chaotic lines of effort (example of Kadyrov) carried out by the Russian special services - if left unchecked - will become increasingly mutually supportive and harder to disrupt. Russian approaches are often crude with a series of failures. Institutional and operational security are often weak, although the current process of restructuring and reform may strengthen the ability to keep operations undetected. In the Russian special services, there is a systemic problem with the lack of independent analysis. Those charged with carrying out the operation are primarily responsible for assessing its possible success and therefore tend to overestimate their capabilities. Nevertheless, the Russians are persistent and, if not stopped, failures such as those experienced in Mozambique turn into successes as seen in Mali. Europe is facing a series of elections this year, and the initial chaotic implementation of active measures is gradually becoming more coherent under the close attention of the Russian presidential administration. Faced with this threat, Western nations must realize that undermining the human intelligence activity/HUMINT/ that supports unconventional warfare methods is critical to degrading Russia's ability to use the techniques described in this paper. In this context, countering disinformation - although important - results in less success than cutting off Russian access to and influence over elites. This can be achieved by exposing its activities and arresting its agents and intelligence officers. Strengthening counterintelligence activities in this sense is an important priority. The risk is that the effort to contain Russia becomes McCarthyist paranoia. As many of Russia's unconventional operations are self-defeating, countering Russian unconventional warfare must be based on careful, selective, intelligence based targeting. This is why it is essential to have a broad understanding of Russian forms and methods; protects the state from jumping into the shadows. Ultimately, Russia's progress in Africa is the formation of the "Roskolonia Entente". On the one hand, it is as Russian officials admit internally a colonial project to gain control over African governments and exploit the continent's natural resources. On the other hand, the Entente or informal and friendly alliance between factions - reflects the fact that Russia has been called upon to take that role, and juntas that invite Russians often have significant popular support, at least among the majority ethnic groups in their countries. Russia's mandate is a consequence of the West's strategic neglect and its failure to address the problems facing its partners. Russia may also fail to do so, but for now frustration with the West in both Africa and the Middle East is high. The point is that as Western states focus on rebuilding their conventional deterrence in Europe, strategic documents emphasizing the nature of global competition are justified. However, Western countries fail to compete. This has to change. Russia uses unconventional warfare to advance its vision of a multipolar world order. This poses a threat far beyond Ukraine. It is of crucial importance that the Western countries face this challenge.
RUSSIA’S WAR: A EUROPEAN CHALLENGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A NEUTRAL STATE
The reactions in Europe, particularly in the EU member states, to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have been very diverse, including those of neutral countries. While Finland and Sweden joined NATO as quickly as possible, Austria continues to uphold its neutrality. Russia is waging a hybrid war against all of Europe, which includes influencing the information space. As we now know, Germany was identified by Russia as an easy target and has been subjected to particularly intense manipulation, mainly due to its influence on decision-making at the EU level. The aim of these attacks is to pull states away from the Western alliance and turn them into advocates for Moscow. The political extremes, especially right-wing populists, could be strengthened by targeted propaganda and disinformation, leading to societal division and state destabilization. Due to the shared language space, attacks on Germany also significantly affect public opinion in Austria. Additionally, Austria’s neutrality has become another target of Russian influence. In addition to the much-discussed attacks on the internet, particularly on social media, there are other, less obvious channels of influence. These include paid or unpaid influencers who spread Russian positions as politicians or experts on television, in books, discussions, newspapers, etc. In Austria, Russian agents have even infiltrated the domestic intelligence service. This poses a significant threat to our security.
UKRAINE WAR ECHOING IN SERBIA – A BIRTHPLACE OF THE NEW NATIONAL POLICY OF SERBIAN LIBERALS
Russian aggression on Ukraine resonates globally as an unprecedented attack on the international constellation, law and order, a pure medieval war of conquest on the neighboring country, and a denial of its sovereign rights to make its own choices on the political establishment, directions of national development, and international alliances. However, in Serbia it is echoing differently. Serbia was the only country to see not only government backing for the Russian side, as few other countries did, but also massive rallies in support of the Russian aggression, killing civilians and ruining Ukraine’s cities and infrastructures. We will discuss how this happened and how the very fabric of Serbian nationalism paved the way for this massive loss of the sense of justice, humanism, and solidarity. At the same time, from the very first days of the aggression, a small group of people has shown loud and courageous support for Ukraine and its refugees in Serbia, often being smeared by government officials, state-controlled media, and angry mobs on the streets. This is considered to be the birthplace and the cradle of the new liberal political idea in Serbia, a fully innovative approach to the defeated 19th-century concept of Serbian national interest, and in particular, a brand new approach to the long-standing painful relations with Kosovo. The foundations of this new policy will be outlined.
The Role of Social Media Superspreaders in Online Information Warfare
In recent years, extensive research has been conducted on the role of large social media accounts in the spread of disinformation. Initial studies on this subject were carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic. One such study found that 73% of all mis- and disinformation could be traced back to a so-called "Dirty Dozen" referring to 12 influential accounts with large followings. A similar trend appears in the realm of geopolitics, a domain where disinformation and propaganda were primarily disseminated in the past through official and embassy accounts but are now "outsourced" to individual accounts. This study focuses on identifying potential superspreader accounts that have shared pro-Kremlin messages following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In addition to identifying these accounts, the research will also categorize the most successful false narratives during this period in terms of their spread and popularity".
THE POLITICS OF FEAR: FABRICATING THE ENDANGERMENT OF THE SERBIAN MINORITY IN KOSOVO AS AN EXPANSIONIST STRATEGY FOR SERBIA
This study investigates the methods used by Serbia to maintain influence over the Serbian minority in Kosovo, exploring the potential use of these strategies to further Serbia's regional ambitions in the Western Balkans. The research focuses on various tactics such as media narratives and political maneuvers, aiming to understand their role in Serbia's strategic goals. By analyzing contemporary practices alongside historical cases, such as Serbia's narratives during the early 1990s conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, this study draws parallels to discern behavioral patterns. Additionally, comparative case studies of Nazi Germany's use of propaganda about the Sudeten Germans and Russia in the Crimea provide a broader context of state-led ethnic manipulation. This research contributes to understanding how ethnic dynamics are used for political gain in volatile regions.
THE STRUGGLE FOR TRUTH: UNVEILING EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT THE HISTORY AND STABILITY OF KOSOVO
This paper examines three cases of espionage arrests in Kosovo, involving two Serbian individuals and two Albanians linked to the Serbian Information and Security Agency (BIA). The aim of these spies was to discredit the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), alter the narrative of the Reçak massacre, create a “yellow house” similar to the one in northern Albania, and destabilize the state of Kosovo by inciting interethnic conflicts. Through the analysis of specific cases and motivation theories, this paper sheds light on the reasons why individuals engage in espionage against their own country, Serbia’s efforts to manipulate the history and stability of the region and the tendencies to invade Kosovo.
HYBRID WARFARE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ELECTIONS IN GEOPOLITICS: NORTH MACEDONIA AS A PART OF THE WEST OR RETURNING TO THE SPHERE OF RUSSIA AND SERBIA
Electoral processes are gaining increasing importance on the geopolitical stage, becoming a major force in shaping politics and international relations. Observing elections in countries such as the USA, Germany, and Italy, confirms that ideological changes within political parties are significantly impacting geopolitical dynamics (i.e., electoral politics as a form of geopolitics). These changes are evident in the use of electoral processes by autocratic regimes such as Russia and Serbia to influence fragile democracies, including North Macedonia and Montenegro. The hybrid warfare strategies of these regimes aim to influence the outcome of elections and manipulate political structures in their favor. In the Western Balkans, these interventions pose challenges for the integrity of these countries. In this paper, we described, explained, analyzed, and assessed the influence of Russia and Serbia in North Macedonia and the potential consequences, including the presidential and parliamentary elections in this year. This analysis underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics of electoral politics, including socio- economic development, ethnic tensions, and long-term solutions for the stability and continued development of the country in a changed international scene.