The hybrid war in the Western Balkans is heavily impacting Montenegro, overturning the geopolitical order in this region in favor of Russia and Serbia. The last two elections in Montenegro were enough to completely change the political structure of this country from pro-Western to pro-Russian and pro-Serbian. The arrest of Đukanović is expected to be one of those blows that will openly undermine Montenegrin statehood, tarnishing the process of independence and NATO membership.
Author: Agim Musliu – Director at the Institute for Hybrid War Studies “OCTOPUS”
Montenegro, at the strategic crossroads of East-West orientation, between Russia and the West, has yet to stabilize despite its NATO membership. In the last four years, two parliamentary elections have been sufficient to completely transform the country’s political structure. From a country with a clear pro-Western orientation, Montenegro is changing its course more and more every day.
The peak of Montenegro’s political course change seems to be marked by the arrest of former President and Prime Minister Milo Đukanović. Since 1995, Đukanović has built strong ties with the West, particularly the USA, culminating in Montenegro’s declaration of independence in 2006 and NATO membership in 2017. Đukanović’s potential arrest comes after the arrests of well-known anti-Russian and anti-Serbian figures, including Milivoje Katnić, Saša Čađenović, and Veselin Veljović. Katnić, a former prosecutor in the assassination attempt on Đukanović, had concluded that a group of Russian nationalists planned to kill the prime minister to bring an opposition party to power.
The recent extradition of fugitive banker Duško Knežević to Montenegro, who claims to have evidence against Đukanović, was interpreted as a signal that “the noose is tightening” around the former president. Đukanović had previously refused to allow the British control over the port of Tivat and the cigarette trade, as well as the Russians control over the port of Bar for military purposes. This refusal seems not to have been forgotten by the British, who might have seized the opportunity of Knežević’s case to push for Đukanović’s arrest. This action could have serious consequences, benefiting Russia and Serbia at the expense of Britain and the entire West.
Đukanović and pro-independence supporters of Montenegro were forced to push the process of Montenegro’s independence forward under the imposition of undemocratic criteria set by the European Union. The EU, to recognize the referendum and the declaration of Montenegro’s independence as legitimate, had set criteria:
- Participation must be over 50% of registered voters;
- The decision for Montenegro’s independence had to be supported by over 55% of voters.
In the elections, 86.3% of registered voters participated, where 55.5% voted for independence and 44.5% opposed. A key factor in meeting the over 55% criterion were the Albanians living in Montenegro.
Independence and NATO membership closed Serbia and Russia’s opportunities for access to the Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, strong opposition to the independence of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, which led to the downfall of Abazović’s government with the initiative of Milo Đukanović’s DPS, gathered enough enemies among Serbs and Russians.
Đukanović touched three vital pillars for Russia, Serbia, and the Orthodox Church:
- The strategic pillar of broad territorial and economic control,
- The strategic pillar of access to the Adriatic Sea, and
- The pillar of the independence of the Orthodox Church with extraterritorial benefits in Montenegro.
Montenegro is strategically and covertly moving towards Russia and Serbia. While the country’s prime minister holds meetings with NATO, he is replacing pro-Western figures with those suitable for Russian and Serbian interests. Although expressing willingness to advance towards EU membership, on the ground, measures are being taken to orient the country towards Serbia and Russia through institutional means. While voting in the UN General Assembly declaratively for the resolution establishing a remembrance day for the Srebrenica genocide, the President of the Assembly, Andrija Mandić, consoles Serbia and works for changes in Montenegro’s state constitutional structure.
The Octopus Institute, through a thorough study, has carefully analyzed the geopolitical and geostrategic reconfigurations occurring in Montenegro due to Russian and Serbian influence. The full study can be found by clicking here. The results show that the recent census in Montenegro might change the ethnic balance, as the Russian-Serbian influence may have pushed many Montenegrins to declare themselves as Serbs. This could transform Montenegro into a state similar to North Macedonia, with federalization like Bosnia and Herzegovina, creating an association for Serbs with executive competencies, organizing a referendum that allows pro-Serbian and pro-Russian municipalities to declare independence or return to Serbia, and in the most extreme scenario, changing the geopolitical circumstances and balance of forces that would lead to the country’s annexation by Serbia. Serbia is also awaiting changes in geopolitical circumstances regarding the Kosovo issue, as President Vučić has stated.
Support for the Srebrenica genocide resolution and Mandić’s statements are a form of strategy for eroding Montenegrin institutions from within, while Vučić recently “criticizing” Montenegro for supporting the resolution, mentioned pro-Russian and pro-Serbian municipalities such as Pljevlja, Herceg Novi, etc., sending a message that institutional erosion, clashes, and all kinds of support are tactics of the strategy for creating the “Serbian World.”
Remember that when the enthronement of the Metropolitan in the Cetinje Monastery, Joanikije II, took place, nationalist songs were sung by priests and Joanikije II himself, emphasizing the return of the Serbian army to Kosovo: “When the army returns to Kosovo…!”. The Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro and the Serbian Patriarch Porfirije have been directly involved in the pre-census campaign to push Montenegrins to declare themselves as Serbs.
Thus, the reorientation of Montenegro may take the form of a Sisyphean task with the arrest of Milo Đukanović. This would tarnish the very act of this country’s declaration of independence and NATO membership. Just as in 1918, when this country was created by Serbia with a government that would draft some rules, a camouflaged referendum, and a parliament declaring the union of Montenegro with Serbia, the same thing seems to be repeating now. But the difference is that now it is happening before the eyes of the West, who seem unaware or disoriented about what is really happening in the Western Balkans.
The illusions of the West that “appeasement policy” towards Serbia could bring it back into the Western orbit are producing counter-effects as in the cases of Hitler and Putin.
Appeasement towards Serbia is strengthening the influence of China and Russia in the Balkans until we may reach a point where the West will be powerless to act.