The Octopus Institute is actively engaged in monitoring the evolving situation in the Western
Balkans, especially the dynamics in Serbia in the context of Kosovo’s admission to the Council of
Europe. With the approach of this significant diplomatic moment, our analysis indicates that Serbia
is intensifying its efforts to obstruct Kosovo’s entry into the Council of Europe.
From a political perspective, Serbia is committed to stopping Kosovo’s advancement to the
Council of Europe by also convincing NATO countries to vote against Kosovo. Serbia has
managed to push Montenegro, a country that recognizes the Republic of Kosovo and is a member
of NATO, to vote against Kosovo in the Council of Europe.
By wanting to threaten Western countries, Serbia declared that they might withdraw from this
institution if Kosovo becomes a member state. With this action, Serbia is not adhering to the
agreements reached between Kosovo and Serbia with the support of the European Union.
According to these agreements, Kosovo and Serbia should not obstruct each other in their path of
advancement in international institutions. These violations of the agreements by Serbia also are in
conflict with international conventions and customs.
Serbia’s reaction to Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe appears to be multifaceted,
extending beyond conventional diplomatic protests to the realm of covert actions that could have
profound implications for regional stability. Our analysis suggests that Serbia, faced with the
imminent reality of losing a significant diplomatic battle, may be turning to measures that are as
unconventional as they are alarming.
Recent information suggests the deployment of armed units by Serbian intelligence services under
the guise of counter-terrorism efforts and operations. This move, ostensibly aimed at curbing the
threat of radical Islamic terrorism, raises serious questions about the real intentions. The timing
and nature of these deployments suggest a malign agenda: the possible fabrication of terrorist
incidents that could falsely be attributed to Islamic extremists.
This tactic, though brutal and shocking, is not without precedent. The global community is still
concerned by the aftermath of devastating attacks in Moscow, attributed to ISIS, which claimed
over 140 lives. Using this scenario, the possibility that Serbia might orchestrate similar attacks
within its borders, or even in Kosovo, to portray itself as a victim of terrorism, cannot be dismissed.
Such actions would serve multiple objectives for Serbia: gaining international sympathy,
complicating Kosovo’s bid for membership in the Council of Europe, and strengthening its stance
against Kosovo’s independence.
This strategy risks igniting tensions in a region still healing from the wounds of past conflicts.
Fabricating terrorist threats, especially when attributed to Islamic extremism, could fuel divisions
and hinder the fragile process of reconciliation among different communities in the Balkans.
The Octopus Institute urges the international community to approach this situation with a critical
eye and to consider the context of Serbia’s actions. It is essential to distinguish between legitimate
security concerns and manipulative tactics aimed at exploiting the spectrum of terrorism for
political gains. As Kosovo stands on the threshold of a new chapter in its international relations,
the integrity of the process must be protected against any form of hybrid warfare intended to
undermine it.
In this context, the Octopus Institute recommends that international and local security structures
increase vigilance and security capacities, especially in areas populated predominantly by Serbs in
Kosovo, and in ethnically mixed populations where there is a risk of being instrumentalized by
Serbia for destructive motives to undermine peace in the Western Balkans.
Following Serbia’s preparations to exploit certain moments to attack Kosovo, the Institute calls
for full attention from international and local institutions, in particular from the EU, NATO, and
the QUINT countries, to not neglect their military, observer, political, and diplomatic engagement
in preventing Serbia’s objectives against Kosovo and the region.
Tolerating and not reacting to Serbia’s security breaches and threats encourages it to cross
boundaries with Kosovo and other regional countries in hybrid, terrorist, paramilitary, or
conventional forms, accommodating also Russia’s interest in creating new war hotspots
worldwide.
A coordinated local and international response would contribute not only to peace and security in
Kosovo but also to the region and beyond.
The Octopus Institute continues to monitor the situation closely and will keep providing analysis
based on concrete data from the terrain.
