Author: OctopusInstitute

Danilo Kalezic University of Montenegro Kalezic13@gmail.com Overview: This analysis examines the evolving nature of Russian and Serbian influence in Montenegro and argues that their strategic interests are increasingly diverging as the country advances toward European Union membership. Drawing on the literature on authoritarian diffusion, external anti-democratic influence, and the black knight effect, the paper analyzes how both actors seek to shape Montenegro’s political trajectory. While Russia has historically pursued a strategy of destabilization aimed at preventing Euro-Atlantic integration, it is increasingly incentivized to preserve influence within Montenegro regardless of its eventual accession to the EU, potentially transforming the country into…

Gjon Culaj, Associate Fellow at the “Octopus” Institute Four decades after the Memorandum of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SANU), the question that still merits attention is: how does Serbian nationalism conceive Kosovo, Serbs outside Serbia’s borders, and the country’s role in the region? The answers reveal a concerning continuity. The political history of Serbia over the past four decades reflects both changes in political regimes and the persistence of core nationalist narratives. From socialist Yugoslavia to today’s Serbia, leaders, institutions, alliances, and the tools of policy have changed. However, one element has remained entirely unchanged: the way…

Gjon Culaj, Associate Fellow at the “Octopus” Institute Coercive diplomacy is a concept that was developed primarily after the Cold War within the fields of strategic studies and international relations. Unlike the direct use of military force, it seeks to achieve political objectives by combining diplomatic negotiations with a credible threat of the use of force (George, 1994:2-3). In his book The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Alexander L. George defines coercive diplomacy as a strategy that attempts to persuade an opponent to stop a certain action, withdraw from an existing policy, or accept a specific agreement (George, 1994:10). Thomas Schelling…

The Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “Octopus” assesses the statement issued by the Eparchy of Raska and Prizren as a compilation of Serbia’s manipulative narratives, which implicitly defends Minister Paunović. Following strong international reactions to the minister’s statement on the “ethnic cleansing of Kosovo,” the Eparchy seeks to divert attention from Belgrade’s political responsibility by repeating victimization narratives about the alleged “discrimination, oppression, and terror” against Serbs in Kosovo. In the context of strategic communication, this represents a well-known model of information crisis management, whereby the narrative is transferred to the Church as a religious institution endowed with moral authority…

Gjon Culaj, Associate Fellow at the “Octopus” Institute Since the launch of the European Union-facilitated dialogue in 2011, expectations were that the process would become the primary mechanism for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia and for the consolidation of peace and stability in the Western Balkans. However, after more than 15 years of effort, the dialogue has produced several agreements but very few tangible results on the ground. This demonstrates the limitations of European diplomacy as a mediator and, at the same time, exposes Serbia’s strategy of using the dialogue not as an instrument of reconciliation, but…

Gjon Culaj, Associate Fellow at the “Octopus” Institute The contemporary security landscape is experiencing significant changes, as traditional forms of conflict are increasingly giving way to more complex, sophisticated, and difficult-to-identify forms of hostile activity. Within this evolving strategic environment, hybrid threats have become one of the most significant challenges confronting democratic states. By combining military and non-military instruments, conventional and unconventional methods, as well as political, economic, informational, and cyber means, these threats seek to weaken state institutions, disrupt democratic processes, and undermine public confidence in governance. According to NATO, hybrid threats involve the coordinated use of military and…

Në shoqëritë demokratike, zgjedhjet e lira e të drejta janë fundament i demokracisë përfaqësuese, duke siguruar legjitimitetin e institucioneve politike, stabilitetin e rendit publik dhe mbrojtjen e interesave të sigurisë kombëtare. Në vendet e lira, zgjedhjet nuk shërbejnë vetëm si mekanizëm për transferimin paqësor të pushtetit, por edhe si instrument përmes të cilit qytetarët ushtrojnë sovranitetin e tyre dhe shprehin besimin ndaj institucioneve publike. Sipas Pippa Norris (2014), integriteti zgjedhor nënkupton zhvillimin e zgjedhjeve në përputhje me standardet ndërkombëtare dhe parimet demokratike gjatë të gjitha fazave të procesit. Çdo ndërhyrje që cenon integritetin e zgjedhjeve, qoftë përmes manipulimit të informacionit,…

Electoral integrity is a cornerstone of democratic governance, as it ensures that elections are conducted in a free, fair, and transparent manner. Beyond determining political leadership, elections provide citizens with the opportunity to participate in public decision-making and to hold elected representatives accountable. The credibility of electoral processes therefore plays a crucial role in strengthening public trust in institutions, maintaining political stability, and safeguarding democratic legitimacy. As argued by Pippa Norris (2014), electoral integrity is achieved when elections adhere to established international norms and democratic principles at every stage of the electoral process. Threats to this integrity, including disinformation, cyber…

Në vorbullën e ngjarjeve të shumta politike, tensioneve rajonale dhe mjegullnajës informative  që ka kapluar hapësirën mediale, produkti më kërcënues i propagandës serbe kundër Kosovës targeton “tradhtarët” në mesin e komunitetit serb. Një tekst i Relja Zhelskit, shef i Drejtorisë së Analizës në BIA, i publikuar më 15 maj nga revista “Kompas”, u afishua nga mediat e tjera serbe si “zbulim” i inteligjencës për projektin e “çserbizimit” të Kosovës (Informer, 18.05.2026). Krahas narrativave të njohura manipuluese si “viktimizimi”, “agresioni i NATO-s”, “kuazi shteti anti-serb”, etj., zyrtari i lartë i BIA-s përdor linçimin dhe demonizimin e Nenad Rashiqit, udhëheqës i partisë…

In the whirlwind of numerous political events, regional tensions, and the informational fog that has engulfed the media space, the most threatening product of Serbian propaganda against Kosovo targets the “traitors” within the Serbian community. A text by Relja Zhelski, head of the Directorate of Analysis at the BIA, published on May 15 by the magazine “Kompas,” was presented by other Serbian media outlets as an intelligence “revelation” about the project of the “de-Serbianization” of Kosovo (Informer, 18.05.2026). Alongside the well-known manipulative narratives such as “victimization,” “NATO aggression,” “anti-Serb quasi-state,” etc., the senior BIA official uses the lynching and demonization…