Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi
“OCTOPUS” Institute
gurakuqkuqi@octopusinstitute.org
Key points:
- The same war rhetoric Putin against Ukraine, Vucic against Kosovo.
- The same rhetoric of Putin and Vucic about the terrorist attacks in Moscow.
- Holding the Serbian Orthodox assembly on May 5, the date of the Slavic military saint.
- Kosovo’s advancement in NATO and CoE and the reaction of Vucic and Montenegro.
- (Non) support by China and Russia of the resolution to stop the war in Gaza.
- Russia’s new military formation with 100,000 soldiers and spring offensive in Ukraine.
Key conclusions:
- Serbia can engage together with Russia in any escalation of the situation in the Western Balkans, namely in Kosovo before May 27.
- Serbia and Russia after Kosovo’s advancement to NATO and CoE may no longer have reason to wait and this gives Russia reason to intensify the war.
- The progress of Kosovo shows that there will be an intensification of clashes at the global and regional level.
- Vucic-Putin identical rhetoric and the commitment of the Serbian Orthodox Church on a holy date shows commitment to new enterprises.
- Russia and BRICS are interested in maintaining the current state of wars and expanding them, but in no way any ceasefire.
- Compliance of Vucic’s statement with Putin’s on the war in Ukraine and Kosovo:
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has threatened the West that they must choose between Kosovo and Serbia. He further continued that if they choose Kosovo, Serbia will “wait for the best possible moment and they will use the opportunity”.
Vucic strengthened these threats on the basis that Kosovo will be supported by the West for membership in the Council of Europe (CoE) and NATO. In a congratulatory letter addressed to Putin for the victory in the elections in Russia, Vucic complains to him about the “difficult political situation that the Serbian people were facing in Kosovo” and that “Serbs are suffering pogrom in Kosovo”, repeating the same words that he had said at the last meeting of the Security Council of the United Nations Organization.
The narrative is the same as in the situation when Putin had started the invasion of Ukraine.
In the speech of February 23, 2022, where Putin had ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine, he said that: “it was necessary to stop […] the genocide against the millions of people who live there, who rely only on Russia. […] the collision of Russia with these forces is inevitable, […] and we are waiting for the right time”. According to him, these disasters are happening to the Russians in Ukraine with the support of the main NATO countries.
The similarity of the two statements points to a common agenda.
Vucic’s current statement is the preparation of the discourse and the political terrain for the future paramilitary and military enterprises that he intends to undertake within the framework of the support he receives from Russia and China. These two countries, together with the BRICS member countries, have recently remained attentive to the calls for sending NATO troops to Ukraine.
2. Compliance Vucic’s statement with Putin’s on the terrorist attack in Moscow:
The terrorist attack in the concert hall in Moscow was considered by Putin that now “the Russian state is at war” against Ukraine, since until now Russia has called its invasion in Ukraine as a “special military operation”. Regarding these attacks, Vucic also declared that “the terrorist attack in Moscow is to escalate the conflict in Ukraine”. So Serbia, like Russia, has called the latter’s war against Ukraine “conflict” and not “war”, and Vucic considers that the terrorist attack in Moscow escalates the conflict in Ukraine, that is, into war. Another statement in line with Russia.
3. Engagement: Orthodox Church – Serbia – Republika Srpska
Recently, a statement of the now deceased former patriarch Pavle was leaked to the media, who says: “Albanians will leave Kosovo and only Serbs will live there”.
Meanwhile, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, has announced that on May 5 and 6 in Belgrade and in other parts of the country, the great Easter Assembly of Serbia and Republika Srpska will be held.
May 5 and 6 are holy dates for Orthodox Christians, as May 5 marks St. George’s Day. Saint George is one of the most important saints in the Eastern Slavic Orthodox tradition, as he is the military patron saint who is usually depicted as a man riding a horse and killing a dragon.
Therefore, it is not by chance that the dates of May 5 and 6 have been chosen to hold the great Easter Assembly and such a conclusion has been agreed upon, as announced by Vucic’s cabinet, after several hours of talks that he had with the President of the Republic of Serbia, Milorad Dodik, with the presence of the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church (KPS) Porfirije.
“In that Assembly, important decisions will be made for the survival of the Serbian people in their hearths, their economic progress, the preservation of the Serbian language and the Cyrillic alphabet and of the common cultural heritage”, the announcement states.
4. Kosovo from an observer state to an associated one in NATO:
The progression from parliamentary observer states to NATO associated states means a move towards closer cooperation and engagement with NATO. As parliamentary observers, countries have the opportunity to participate in the work and discussions of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly without being full members of the organization. This status enables them to engage in discussions, gain knowledge and contribute to the dialogue on security and defense policy issues within the NATO Parliament.
On the other hand, becoming a NATO associate state involves a deeper level of partnership. Associated States have a more formal relationship with NATO, enabling them to participate in specific Alliance programs, activities and initiatives. While they are not full members of NATO, the associated states benefit from increased cooperation, support and engagement in areas such as defense reform, security cooperation and democratic practices.
In essence, the transition from parliamentary observer status to an associated state reflects an important step towards closer alignment with NATO’s principles and objectives, fostering stronger ties and cooperation on security issues, while maintaining a status special before full membership in the Alliance.
Vucic reacted by accusing that the West has allegedly imposed sanctions on Kosovo, but on the other hand, they are closely coordinated, such as the advancement in NATO, the Council of Europe and the liberalization of visas. He said that Kosovo will become a member of the Council of Europe on a specific date, just as they did for its advancement to NATO. Vucic declared that they will never become part of NATO and will maintain neutrality. Serbia has even threatened to leave the Council of Europe if Kosovo joins the Council of Europe, and Montenegro has announced a vote against Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe.
Also, after the meeting of the Security of Serbia, Vucic declared that: “We will save our country in very complex geopolitical circumstances. The tasks are divided and will be carried out”. So, he still remains in a threatening line with the statement we quoted in the paragraph.
5. Russia and China first veto US-led UN resolution on Gaza ceasefire. This can be seen in the context of maintaining current hotbeds of war and opening new ones while keeping the West engaged in many countries.
The resolution, however, was voted to make a ceasefire during the month of Ramadan and possibly towards a peace, but it remained a sign of global disunity and the realistic intentions of the great powers to benefit in any case against each other.
We must bear in mind that the resolutions are not mandatory.
6. Russia will assemble a new military formation of over 100,000 troops for a potential new spring offensive in Ukraine.
Conclusions:
1. The cooperation of Vucic and Putin in rhetoric and goals indicates a coordinated approach to the common challenges of destabilization in the Balkan region and beyond.
2. The engagement of the Serbian Orthodox Church in an assembly on holy dates builds a common narrative for the protection and propagation of Orthodox interests in the region.
3. Kosovo’s advancement in international structures has caused great tensions and increased the possibility of new conflicts, especially in the context of the absence of Serbia and Russia to accept these developments.
4. Russia and China’s rejection of a ceasefire resolution shows efforts to maintain the status quo in the region and open new spaces for conflicts even though later the same was voted leaving traces of division and realistic goals.
5. The announcement of the new Russian military formation for a potential offensive in Ukraine indicates a tense situation and the possibility of escalation of conflicts in the region in the future.