Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi
“OCTOPUS” Institute
gurakuq.kuqi@octopusinstitute.org
Electoral elections are no longer merely democratic undertakings organized to guide socio-economic development. They now also hold geostrategic and geopolitical importance, becoming a significant part of hybrid warfare strategies. Following Montenegro, we now observe this trend in North Macedonia, where even German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has intervened, presenting a Western stance that extends beyond his personal preference.
Electoral processes have evolved from internal socio-political and economic matters to a major force in shaping politics and geopolitics. Elections in the USA from 2016 to today, followed by those in Germany, Italy, and other European countries, show that ideological changes in parties are not only internal transformations in economic and social development but also external geopolitical shifts. However, these changes predominantly impact third countries. Autocratic regimes, like Russia and Serbia, have recognized the potential of electoral processes through hybrid warfare as a tool to exert influence in fragile democracies, including North Macedonia and Montenegro. This manipulation of democratic processes is a manifestation of hybrid warfare, employing political, economic, and informational strategies to achieve strategic objectives.
Recently, we witnessed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s statement regarding the elections in North Macedonia, explicitly calling for a vote for the LSDM. This statement by Mr. Scholz is not merely a personal preference but a calculated move within a comprehensive strategy to protect NATO and EU’s core interests in the strategic region of the Western Balkans. Any change in the political landscape of North Macedonia that does not align with Western interests could potentially create a dangerous anti-Western and quasi-Western axis, including Serbia, the Republic of Srpska, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. This development could have wide-ranging implications for the stability and security of the entire region and, consequently, for Western interests.
In this context, electoral processes have become a critical component of geopolitical influence, shaping alliances and impacting international relations. Understanding the dynamics of electoral politics in third countries is essential to exploring the complexity of the contemporary global order. Thus, we are in the trend of “electoral politics as geopolitics.”
For instance, in the USA, the electoral challenge between contenders Joe Biden and Donald Trump is not merely a political duel within their borders but also a spectacle that can profoundly affect global geopolitical structures. During this electoral period, it is difficult not to notice the influence of external interests on the campaign and election outcome in the USA. In a changed and significant geopolitical environment, international actors use their diplomatic, economic, and propagandistic tools to influence the course of events in the world’s most powerful country.
Therefore, the electoral decision will not only be a manifestation of the political preferences of the American population but also an expression of the responsibilities and challenges that fall to a newly selected leader in the context of a changing world.
In the context of the geopolitical challenges of the Western Balkans, the actions of Russia and Serbia through the use of hybrid warfare strategies in North Macedonia represent a clear effort to influence the election outcome and manipulate political structures in their favor. In this scenario, the goal is to create a politically unstable situation, resulting in an insecure governance that keeps North Macedonia in a state similar to that of Montenegro.
In detail, this strategy aims to secure a victory for right-wing nationalist parties like VMRO-DPMNE, connecting them with a leftist movement like Levica, to create a governing coalition that includes some Albanian coalition in the name of multi-ethnicity and ostensibly pro-Western guarantees. However, in such a governance framework, state and institutional stability cannot be guaranteed.
In this situation, Western powers will be forced to accept such a governance structure in the name of stability, as they have previously acted in the case of Montenegro. Stability may become a challenge but not from the Albanian factor as it is important to determine that the risk of deteriorating ethnic tensions in North Macedonia does not stem from the Albanian factor. Instead, ethnic tensions mainly arise from internal Macedonian factors.
Albanians, whether in political or ethnic terms, have demonstrated a consistent state consciousness towards North Macedonia, maintaining a pro-Western orientation and expressing their willingness to be part of the country’s state and political structures. This enduring stance has constituted a stabilizing element in North Macedonia’s political landscape, despite ideological and strategic changes in Macedonian political parties.
Therefore, to understand and address ethnic tensions in North Macedonia, we must turn to the challenges and dynamics within the Macedonian community, examining them in the context of the country’s history and internal politics, and identifying their primary sources to find sustainable and long-term solutions for the stability and continued development of North Macedonia.
To maintain North Macedonia’s integrity and avoid widespread Russian-Serbian influence, one of the main challenges that must be taken seriously is economic and social development. To achieve this objective, it is crucial for the political, intellectual, and civic classes in North Macedonia to play the role of true patriots, striving to protect its sovereignty and advancing along the path of sustainable development.
This process requires the country’s political and social actors to work in harmony to avoid the involvement of external policies that could lead to state capture, thereby creating a favorable climate for sustainable development and progress. Conversely, political disagreements and tensions could cause social unrest and destabilization, endangering North Macedonia’s existence as a state entity within its current political structure.
In this context, it is important for North Macedonia to seriously evaluate internal and external challenges, taking Montenegro’s experience in facing and addressing them as an example. A strong connection with NATO and efforts to integrate into the European Union are also essential to ensure the country’s security and development in a changed geopolitical context. Therefore, it is important for North Macedonia to continue to understand and take the necessary steps to maintain its integrity and achieve its strategic objectives on the international stage.
These conclusions are derived from the paper titled: Hybrid Warfare and the Importance of Elections in Geopolitics: North Macedonia as a part of the West or Returning to the Sphere of Russia and Serbia, published by the OCTOPUS Institute. This paper examines how North Macedonia had a party with strong pro-Russian and pro-Serbian segments at its helm, then shifted to another pro-Western party after many challenges, and now risks reverting to its pre-2016 stance or worse.
In the paper, we have examined the threats of Serbianization in North Macedonia, Russian influence, and efforts to change the approach towards the West and the hybrid warfare which, in addition to damaging North Macedonia, has been strong enough to engage in elections in the USA.