Policy Recommendations from the Octopus Institute
Taulant Elshani Researcher 12/01/2024
In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić’s authoritarianism has now been consolidated to the extent that it is universally linked to the political and historical fate of the recent decades of the Serbian state. The concentration of power, manifested by media and civil society control, the subjugation of the opposition, strong ties with the underworld, electoral machinations (especially those of December 17th), connections with dictator Putin, and after the invasion of Ukraine, the West’s surprisingly tolerant approach to Serbian authoritarian President Aleksandar Vučić have turned the latter into a reckless political adventurer, with an extremely destructive tendency towards peace and regional stability.
The central arguments of the thesis presented in this text are the necessity and urgency for the West to reconsider its political approach towards Serbia, not tolerating the aggressive behavior and hostile approach of President Aleksandar Vučić towards Kosovo and other Balkan states, and the necessity of pushing forward the idea of democratizing Serbia.
The policy of “appeasement,” which found widespread use in the interwar period and especially with British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s efforts to appease Hitler by tolerating his expansionist efforts, implies deliberate tolerance of the adversary’s aggressive approach only to avoid war. There is a wide debate on “appeasement” as a strategy in world politics, and academics are divided on this issue: with Stephen Rock and Fareed Zakaria arguing for it, while John Mearsheimer and Robert Kagan oppose it as an approach and strategy.
The theoretical framework of the idea of “appeasement” and its historical aspect are important to clearly illustrate what this text seeks to convey: that “appeasement,” or tolerance and understanding of autocrats’ and dictators’ expansionist appetites, does not work, just as it did not work with Hitler, when it is clear that World War II was not avoided, and Hitler did not restrain himself, despite Chamberlain’s efforts.
Tolerating President Vučić has failed
In recent years, the West has applied a gentle and generally tolerant approach towards Aleksandar Vučić; this is partly due to the hope that this would draw Serbia away from Russian influence, but also due to an unjust geopolitical assessment, which is a consequence of the first reason, namely the re-establishment of Serbia at the center of developments in the region. The occupation of Ukraine in February 2022 provided Serbia and authoritarian President Aleksandar Vučić with significantly greater advantages in the approach the West applied towards it. Tolerance towards Serbia’s destructive behavior, sometimes silently and sometimes publicly, created the impression of a total reconfiguration of Western policies and approaches towards this Balkan country. Dilemmas and questions were raised even on entirely fundamental issues, such as democracy and human rights, but also dilemmas about whether tolerating Vučić was in the West’s interest.
The increase and consolidation of authoritarianism within Serbia, the hostile approach and open aggression against Kosovo on September 24, 2023, as well as the strengthening of ties with Russia, clearly showed that the tolerant approach, or “appeasement,” of the West had failed in the most spectacular way possible. Not only was the strategic objective of pulling Serbia away from Russian influence not achieved, but this approach had encouraged President Aleksandar Vučić to push forward the idea of a Serbian World, where with paramilitary and terrorist aggression against Kosovo, he seriously challenged regional peace and stability.
A radical change in Western approach is required
The West’s tolerant approach has encouraged the President of Serbia to pursue his ideas of regional hegemony – thus beginning the implementation of the Serbian World project. Since Serbia’s destructive actions were tolerated by powerful Western states, this gave President Vučić the impression that he had more room for maneuver on the table, counting on the advantageous options of double-dealing: coordinating with dictator Putin and relations with the European Union and other Western states.
The curve of Aleksandar Vučić’s destructiveness has marked a dangerous rise, and this has led to completely unpredictable situations, especially since February 2022. Tolerating aggression (appeasement) and systematic hostile approach towards Kosovo, starting from tolerating logistical, financial, and political support for barricades in the northern municipalities of Kosovo, then openly funding the two terrorist organizations “Northern Brigade” and “Civil Defense”, tolerating the militaristic and threatening language towards Kosovo, and finally not punishing the terrorist and paramilitary attack in Banjskë, should be considered a major mistake in the West’s approach towards Serbia, and a radical and serious change in Western policies and approach in the Balkans should be sought.
Western appeasement towards Aleksandar Vučić has increased Serbia’s dependence on Russia, pushing it to buy more modern arms systems; it has encouraged Serbia towards dangerous adventures by openly exercising paramilitary and terrorist aggression against Kosovo, has intensified nationalist and threatening language against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and has strengthened authoritarianism and damaged democracy within Serbia.
Both on a principled and strategic and interest level, the West should place democratization of Serbia at the center of its approach to the Balkans, now as the only sustainable solution that will guarantee long-term peace and stability in the region. Internal democratization in Serbia would enable the opening and consolidation of new horizons that would start with the arrival of a freely and democratically elected government, followed by the recognition of Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, the abandonment of obstructionism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and would end with integration into the European Union. Only this would be the natural path to a lasting peace in the Balkans, but also in Europe.
Policy Recommendations
The West should use conditional aid policy, sanctioning the continuation of 1. financial aid, 2. integration processes, and 3. good relations with Serbia only under the conditions that the latter will undergo radical democratization and change its approach towards its neighbors.
It is crucial that these three processes are conditioned, as they are fundamental for Serbia’s position and continued well-being.
In 2022 alone, Serbia received about 1 billion euros in assistance from the European Union from various instruments; 286 million euros from the Pre-Accession Assistance for economic development and rule of law projects; around 720 million euros from the European Investment Bank in loans.
In return, Serbia has neither offered nor demonstrated democratic reforms, nor rule of law, on the contrary, it has deteriorated in democratic representation, while regionally it has exported violence and terror by exercising aggression against Kosovo and obstructions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The West should make it clear to autocrat Vučić that he is not the partner for further integration phases, and thus create conditions and horizons for a new political leadership in Serbia, under clear conditions of deep democratic reforms, especially free elections, media control, rule of law, as well as the clear condition of final recognition of the independence of the Republic of Kosovo, and immediate abandonment of destructive policies and obstructionism in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro.
Conclusions
Serbia has recently triggered some of the most serious security crises in the Balkans by destabilizing Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro, causing and exporting terror, obstruction, and special warfare, respectively.
Serbia has also officially embraced a revisionist agenda by not recognizing sovereign neighboring states and believing in changing borders by force. Serbia is the only country in Europe that has in its state program and political agenda the destruction of a neighboring country – Kosovo. No other country in Europe has such destructive and aggressive ambitions, which inevitably lead to wars.
The West, especially the United States and the European Union, must finally change their political course towards Serbia; the policy of appeasement must be immediately discontinued, Aleksandar Vučić’s regime must be denounced as dangerous to regional peace and stability, and consequently isolated as a warmongering leader and supporter of Putin.
Only a democratic Serbia, with legitimate leadership, recognizing regional realities, Kosovo’s independence, and with a European approach can serve as a guarantee for sustainable peace and become part of long-term agreements on equal terms with Kosovo.