HYBRID WARFARE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ELECTIONS IN GEOPOLITICS: NORTH MACEDONIA AS A PART OF THE WEST OR RETURNING TO THE SPHERE OF RUSSIA AND SERBIA

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69921/89mxkh20

Keywords:

North Macedonia , hybrid war, elections, geopolitics, Russia, Ser, cybersecurity

Abstract

Electoral processes are gaining increasing importance on the geopolitical stage, becoming a major force in shaping politics and international relations. Observing elections in countries such as the USA, Germany, and Italy, confirms that ideological changes within political parties are significantly impacting geopolitical dynamics (i.e., electoral politics as a form of geopolitics). These changes are evident in the use of electoral processes by autocratic regimes such as Russia and Serbia to influence fragile democracies, including North Macedonia and Montenegro. The hybrid warfare strategies of these regimes aim to influence the outcome of elections and manipulate political structures in their favor. In the Western Balkans, these interventions pose challenges for the integrity of these countries. In this paper, we described, explained, analyzed, and assessed the influence of Russia and Serbia in North Macedonia and the potential consequences, including the presidential and parliamentary elections in this year. This analysis underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics of electoral politics, including socio- economic development, ethnic tensions, and long-term solutions for the stability and continued development of the country in a changed international scene.

Author Biography

  • Dr. Gurakuç Kuçi, Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies "OCTOPUS"

    Gurakuç Kuçi is a doctor of international relations and the history of diplomacy at the University of Tetova in North Macedonia, he has completed a master’s degree in International Politics and a bachelor’s degree in Political Science at the University of Pristina “Hasan Prishtina”, as well as another bachelor’s degree in Journalism at the same institution. He is a researcher at the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “OCTOPUS” and has experience working with non-governmental organizations and journalism. Kuçi has several scientific publications in international journals.

References

• Benakis, T. (2018, July 12). Greece, Russia to expel diplomats in ‘Macedonia’ row. European Interest. Retrieved April 3, 2024, from https://www.europeaninterest.eu/greece-russia-expel-diplomats-macedonia-row/

• BIRN. (2018, May 18). Russia accuses West of backing ‘Greater Albania.’ Balkan Insight. Retrieved April6, 2024, from https://balkaninsight.com/2017/03/03/russia-jumps-into-macedonia-election-crisis-03-03-2017/

• Brey, T. (2023, August 30). Građani Sjeverne Makedonije više ne žele čekati Europu. dw.com. RetrievedApril 4, 2024, from https://www.dw.com/hr/gra%C4%91ani-sjeverne-makedonije-vi%C5%A1e-ne-%C5%BEele-

• %C4%8Dekati-europu/a-66660820

• Cable, J., Garcia-Camargo, I., Diresta, R., Stanford Internet Observatory, & Graphika Team. (2020, October 13). A look into viral North Macedonian content Farms — Election integrity partnership. Election IntegrityPartnership. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.eipartnership.net/2020/north-macedonian-content-farms

• Collins, B., & Zadrozny, B. (2020, May 29). Troll farms from North Macedonia and the Philippines pushed coronavirus disinformation on Facebook. NBC News. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/troll-farms-macedonia-philippines-pushed-coronavirus-disinformation- facebook-n1218376

• Cvetkovska, S. (2018, July 16). Russian businessman behind unrest in Macedonia. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/8329-russian-businessman-behind-unrest-in-macedonia.

• Cvetkovska, S., Belford, A., Silverman, C., & Feder, J. L. (2018, July 18). The secret players behind Macedonia’s fake news sites - OCCRP. OCCRP. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.occrp.org/en/spooksandspin/the-secret-players-behind-macedonias-fake-news-sites

• Deutsche Welle. (2018a, June 13). Macedonia’s president rejects new name deal. dw.com. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.dw.com/en/macedonian-president-ivanov-says-he-wont-sign-disastrous-name-deal-with- greece/a-44212040

• Deutsche Welle. (2018b, July 11). Greece to expel two Russian diplomats, ban two others. dw.com. Retrieved April 3, 2024, from https://www.dw.com/en/greece-to-expel-two-russian-diplomats-ban-two-others-newspaper/a-

• 44628127

• Dimitrevska, V. (2023, February 22). North Macedonia steps up security after cyber attacks and bomb hoaxes linked to Ukraine war. Retrieved April 6, 2024, from https://www.intellinews.com/north-macedonia-steps-up-security- after-cyber-attacks-and-bomb-hoaxes-linked-to-ukraine-war-270736/

• Dimitrievska, V. (2024, February 9). Voters prepare to punish North Macedonia’s ruling SDSM for broken promises. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-voters-prepare-to-punish-north- macedonia-s-ruling-sdsm-for-broken-promises-310569/

• Dojčinović, A. B. S. C. B. S. a. S. (2017, June 4). Leaked documents show Russian, Serbian attempts tomeddle in Macedonia - OCCRP. OCCRP. Retrieved April 3, 2024, from https://www.occrp.org/en/spooksandspin/leaked- documents-show-russian-serbian-attempts-to-meddle-in- macedonia/

• Drapak, M. (2023). Kremlin’s influence on Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Montenegro in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Analytical Portal. https://analytics.intsecurity.org/en/bulgaria-and-macedonia- montenegro/

• Filipovic, V., & Pejic, M. (2015, November 25). HAJKA NA SRBE Skandalozni bilbordi mržnje po celom Skoplju, ljudi u strahu. Blic.rs. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/hajka-na-srbe- skandalozni-bilbordi-mrznje-po-celom-skoplju-ljudi-u-strahu/l0w6dbt

• Gazeta Shqip. (2017, April 28). Maqedoni, 102 të plagosur nga trazirat. Gazeta Shqip. Retrieved April 6,2024, from https://gazeta-shqip.com/2017/04/28/maqedoni-102-te-plagosur-nga-trazirat/

• Gjorgovski, J., & Petrovska, S. (2023, September 15). “North Macedonia has made a clear national decision.” New Eastern Europe. Retrieved April 6, 2024, from https://neweasterneurope.eu/2023/05/04/north- macedonia-has-made-a-clear-national-decision/

• Jones, M. G. (2024, January 24). Russia trying to ‘hijack’ frustration with EU accession delay - North Macedonia FM. Euronews. Retrieved April 6, 2024, from https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/01/24/russia- trying-to-hijack-frustration-with-eu-accession-delay-north-macedonia-fm

• Joseph, E. P. (2023, November 25). How U.S. history can save North Macedonia and defeat Putinism in the Balkans - The SAIS Review of International Affairs. The SAIS Review of International Affairs. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/how-u-s-history-can-save-north-macedonia-and-defeat-putinism-in-the- balkans/

• Katic, M., Jevtovic, M., Nikolovska, B., Jankovic, J., & Jovanovic, N. (2024, February 27). Made in Macedonia: Americans lose millions buying fake Donald Trump debit cards. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-trump-debit-cards-scam/32836128.html

• Keohane, R. O. (1984). After Hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the world Political economy. Foreign Affairs, 63(2), 414. https://doi.org/10.2307/20042201 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/20042201

• Klan Macedonia. (2024, March 30). Zgjedhjet 2024/ Fundjava e promovimeve të koalicioneve dhe listave!

• Klan Macedonia. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://tvklan.mk/zgjedhjet-2024-fundjava-e-promovimeve-te- koalicioneve-dhe-listave/

• Kosovo Online. (2024, February 26). Elections in North Macedonia - determining the path towards the creation of “Greater Albania.” Kosovo Online. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.kosovo- online.com/en/news/kontext/elections-north-macedonia-determining-path-towards-creation-greater-albania-26-2- 2024

• Kovačević, A. (2020, November 20). INTERVJU, OLGA RAVASI: Vreme je da američki Srbi izađu iz apatije i ujedine se oko Trampa, jer su njegovi neprijatelji i naši! | Serbiantimes.info. Serbiantimes.info. RetrievedApril 9, 2024, from https://serbiantimes.info/intervju-olga-ravasi-vreme-je-da-americki-srbi-izadu-iz-apatije-i- ujedine-se-oko- trampa-jer-su-njegovi-neprijatelji-i-nasi/

• Kunz, J. L., & Morgenthau, H. J. (1948). Politics among Nations. The Struggle for Power and Peace. ˜ theœ Western Political Quarterly/˜ the œ Western Political Quarterly, 1(4), 461. https://doi.org/10.2307/442951 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/442951

• Lajme Sot. (2024, March 30). Sot u bashkua i gjithë Fronti i fitores kundër Rusisë, pro Europës.

• LajmeSot.mk. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://lajmesot.mk/sot-u-bashkua-i-gjithe-fronti-i-fitores-kunder-rusise- pro-europes/

• Marusic, S. J. (2022, September 14). North Macedonia Warned Over Cyber Safety amid Ongoing Attack. Balkan Insight. Retrieved April 6, 2024, from https://balkaninsight.com/2022/09/13/north-macedonia-warned-over- cyber-safety-amid-ongoing-attack/

• McBride, J. (2023, November 21). Russia’s influence in the Balkans. Council on Foreign Relations.Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/russias-influence-balkans#chapter-title-0-5

• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. W. W. Norton & Company.

• Moravcsik, A. (1997). Taking Preferences seriously: A liberal theory of international politics. International Organization, 51(4), 513–553. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081897550447 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/002081897550447

• Mujanović, J. (2018a). Conclusions. In Hunger and Fury: The crisis of democracy in the Balkans (p. 171). Oxford University Press.

• Mujanović, J. (2018b). Geopolitics and the Crisis of Democracy in the Western Balkans. In Hunger andFury: The crisis of democracy in the Balkans (p. 127). Oxford University Press.

• NATO. (2023, March 7). NATO team in North Macedonia to help against hybrid attacks. Retrieved April6, 2024, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212621.htm?selectedLocale=en

• Nedos, V. (2018, July 11). Greece decides to expel Russian diplomats. kathimerini.gr. Retrieved April 4,2024, from https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/230551/greece-decides-to-expel-russian-diplomats/

• Nikolovski, I., & Kirchner, M. J. (2021). Political rollercoaster. An eventful year for North Macedonia onits EU path. In Konrad Adenauer Foundation in the Republic of North Macedonia Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” – Skopje (No.02/2021). Konrad Adenauer Foundation in the Republic of North

• Macedonia Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” – Skopje. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.kas.de/en/web/nordmazedonien/single-title/-/content/analysis-of-the-public-opinion-about-the-north- macedonia-s-accession-to-the-european-union-2014-2023

• Noack, R. (2021, December 1). Russia blames the U.S. after protesters storm Macedonia’s parliament. Washington Post. Retrieved April 3, 2024, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/28/russia-blames-the-u-s-after-protesters-storm- macedonias-parliament/

• Radio Slobodna Evropa. (2022, March 28). Македонија протера петмина руски дипломати. Радио Слободна Европа. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.slobodnaevropa.mk/a/31774150.html

• Radio Slobodna Evropa. (2023a, August 20). Ministar odbrane Srbije: Crnoj Gori i Sjevernoj Makedonijiće se obiti o glavu priznanje Kosova, kao što je Ukrajini. Radio Slobodna Evropa. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/vucevic-crna-gora-makedonija-priznanje-kosova/32555915.html

• Radio Slobodna Evropa. (2023b, September 18). Македонските власти протераа тројца рускидипломати.

• Радио Слободна Европа. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.slobodnaevropa.mk/a/makedonskite-vlasti- proteraa-trojca-ruski-diplomati-/32595555.html

• Rechica, V. (2023, June 19). The disappointment towards the West nurtures anti-democratic sentiments in North Macedonia | Politics |. Res Publica. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://respublica.edu.mk/blog- en/politics/the- disappointment-towards-the-west-nurtures-anti-democratic-sentiments-in-north-macedonia/?lang=en

• Reed, M. (2023, August 26). Escobar: Not asking people to support the government but to support European path. Mia.mk. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://mia.mk/en/story/escobar-not-asking-people-to-support-the- government-asking-them-to-support-the-european-path

• Samardjiev, A. (2024, February 5). North Macedonia, new elections coming. OBC Transeuropa. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-new-elections- coming-229708

• Secrieru, S. (2018). RUSSIA IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: Tactical wins, strategic setbacks. EuropeanUnion Institute for Security Studies. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special- interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources/docs/EUISS_Brief%208%20Russia%20Balkans_0.pdf

• Secrieru, S. (2021, July 19). Russia in the Western Balkans. European Union Institute for Security Studies. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/russia-western- balkans#_make_the_balkans_multipolar_again

• Silverman, C., & Alexander, L. (2016, November 3). How teens in the Balkans are duping Trumpsupporters with fake news. BuzzFeed News. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump- misinfo#.xxbDgkEbw

• Smith, H. (2019, November 26). Putin says US wants to “assert dominance” in Balkans as Macedonia changes name. The Guardian. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/16/putin-says-us- wants-to-assert-dominance-in-balkans-as-macedonia-changes-name

• Sunter, D. (2020, December 21). NATO Review - Disinformation in the Western Balkans. NATO Review. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2020/12/21/disinformation-in-the-western- balkans/index.html

• Synovitz, R., & Mitevska, M. (2020, October 23). “Fake news” sites in North Macedonia pose as American conservatives ahead of U.S. election. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Retrieved April 9, 2024, from https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-fake-news-sites-us-election-conservatives/30906884.html

• Trpkovski, G. (2018, May 18). Kremlin ‘Guru’ rouses Anti-Western feeling in Macedonia. Balkan Insight. Retrieved April 3, 2024, from https://balkaninsight.com/2018/03/05/kremlin-guru-rouses-anti-western-feeling-in- macedonia-03-05-2018/

• Vuksanovic, V. (2018, July 27). Serbs are not “Little Russians.” The American Interest. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/07/26/serbs-are-not-little-russians/

• Waltz, K. N. (1980). Theory of International Politics. Political Science Quarterly, 95(1), 136–137. https://doi.org/10.2307/2149594 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2149594

• Wendt, A. (1995). Constructing international politics. International Security (Print), 20(1), 71. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539217 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2539217

• Анкета на ИПИС: Над 70% од граѓаните се против францускиот предлог. (2022, July 7). Сител Телевизија. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://sitel.com.mk/anketa-na-ipis-nad-70-od-gragjanite-se-protiv- francuskiot-predlog

• Европа, Р. С. (2022, April 2). Петков - Руските агенти работеле против добрососедските односи на Бугарија и Македонија. Радио Слободна Европа. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://www.slobodnaevropa.mk/a/31782827.html

• Митевска, М. (2015, January 23). Србизација на Македонија? Радио Слободна Европа. Retrieved April3, 2024, from https://www.slobodnaevropa.mk/a/26809481.html

• Президент на Република България. (2022, May 4). President.bg. Retrieved April 4, 2024, from https://m.president.bg/en/news6555/address-by-president-rumen-radev-at-the-national-conference-european- perspective-on-good-neighbourly-relations-between-the-republic-of-bulgaria-and-the-republic-of-north-macedonia

Downloads

Published

23.04.2024

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Kuçi, G. (2024). HYBRID WARFARE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ELECTIONS IN GEOPOLITICS: NORTH MACEDONIA AS A PART OF THE WEST OR RETURNING TO THE SPHERE OF RUSSIA AND SERBIA. Octopus Journal: Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Conflicts, 2, 25. https://doi.org/10.69921/89mxkh20
Share |