First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for the opportunity to work with the Octopus Institute and share my insights on Russian and Serbian electoral manipulation and influence.
As a Ukrainian journalist I have been participating in the Journalist-in-Residence program since 2022 and living in Pristina. I have discovered that the Russian war against Ukraine and its hybrid warfare tactics have many similarities with the actions of Serbia against Kosovo. As Russia tries to restore the “Russian world” in Ukraine as Serbia wants to build the “Serbian world” in the Balkans.
Russia and Serbia have historical deep-seated ties that are grounded on the slavic traditions, orthodox religion and economic dependance. On the one hand, Serbia, Russia’s main ally, wants to be part of the EU, but on the other hand, it continues to support Russia, and didn’t join the European sanctions against Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Kosovo as an independent country is a goal of Russian and Serbian propaganda. Therefore, Serbia aims to use the election campaign in Kosovo to destabilise the situation and strengthen its influence in line with Russian scenarios.
Fair and transparent elections are clearly an integral part of the democratic functioning of political institutions. At the same time, interference in such elections challenges democracy and constitutes a matter of national security for any country.
Russian election interference is a systematic strategy by the Kremlin aimed at undermining democratic institutions and polarizing society in various countries. It includes disinformation campaigns, the funding of pro-Russian politicians, cyberattacks, and influence operations.
This is part of the hybrid war that Russia has been waging against Western countries during dacades.
2018 – Russia has interfered in the electoral processes of at least five NATO member countries over the past few years. This is stated in a report by the Committee on Science and Technology of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
* the 2016 U.S. presidential election,
* the 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK, and
* the 2017 general election in the UK,
* the 2017 French presidential election,
* the 2017 parliamentary election in Germany,
* the 2017 referendum on Catalonia’s status.
Between 2020 and 2022, Russia actively interfered in elections in at least nine countries, seeking to undermine public trust in democratic institutions, according to a U.S. intelligence report released in October 2023. In 17 other countries, Russia’s efforts were “less pronounced.” Russia uses spies, social media, and Russian state media to undermine public confidence in the integrity of democratic elections worldwide. “This is a global phenomenon,” the report emphasizes. “The data shows that high-ranking Russian officials, including those in the Kremlin, see value in such influence operations and consider them effective.”
Elections in foreign countries have become the target of Russian disinformation campaigns. Russia has primarily supported right-wing parties and politicians, or those willing to implement pro-Russian policies. For example, recently in many European countries, right-wing political forces that traditionally lean towards nationalism and conservatism have gained popularity, questioning the need to help Ukraine and advocating for cuts in migrant support programmes. These include the far-right National Rally party (RN) in France, which is headed by Putin’s friend Marine Le Pen; the right-wing populist and national-conservative political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right political alliance Confederation (Konfederacja) in Poland. For example, in July 2025, the Confederation organised protests against the admission of migrants in Warsaw and around 80 other locations across Poland.
The case of the presidential campaign in Romania 2024, where an unknown far-right candidate who didn’t have much support from the electorate received unpredictable results after the first round of the presidential elections. His success is easily explained by the huge information campaign on TikTok. The scale of manipulation, particularly on TikTok, was so significant that Romania’s Constitutional Court ultimately nullified the election and ordered a new vote.
In 2025, Russia has intensified its information attacks on Moldova ahead of the parliamentary elections. Among other things, Russia is providing information support to Moldovan political forces that broadcast pro-Russian narratives. In addition to direct media support for propaganda resources, the Kremlin also uses TikTok, Telegram, and Facebook for information attacks on Moldova, actively engaging local pro-Russian bloggers and its diplomatic institutions.
As a Ukrainian journalist, I have witnessed repeated Russian interference in Ukraine’s electoral processes – ranging from open support for pro-Russian parties and candidates, to the dissemination of biased content in the media, to threats against election commission members and the bribery of voters.
Russia’s toolkit for election interference comprises many methods, which fall into four categories: 1) information manipulation; 2) cyber disruption; 3) influence building; and 4) direct intervention.
There is no universal template for the Kremlin’s election interference operations—each case involves a unique combination of methods. Russia is flexible in choosing new approaches and tactics, as new technologies become tools for manipulating and influencing public opinion in different countries.
Russian interference in elections is a “long-term strategy”: many of these methods are employed to some extent long before the elections themselves, and are only intensified during the campaigns. Often, Russia’s goal is not to bring its own candidate to power, but to create chaos and disrupt the country’s political system. Official investigations consistently document these threats, prompting governments to strengthen cybersecurity measures and impose sanctions on individuals and companies involved in such operations.
The Western Balkans are an important geopolitical location for the European Union due to their strategic position and influence on stability in Eastern Europe. This is the reason why this region is also targeted by Russia. Russian disinformation causes tension in the political, economic and social spheres, threatening the efforts of countries in the region to integrate with Europe. Russia resents the region’s push for integration with the EU and NATO, and seeks to use persistent ethnic and religious fault lines to undermine these efforts.
In a similar way, Serbia is applying the same methods in its ambitions against Kosovo. As a regional ally of Russia, Serbia is interfering in Kosovo with similar methods from the four categories mentioned above, undermining democracy, especially of the Serbian community, inciting inter-ethnic tensions for destabilizing purposes, violating the information space through disinformation, and blackmailing and threatening voters, with the aim of further controlling and instrumentalizing them.
